U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Monday on forecasts for milder than normal weather to continue through late December, keeping heating demand low for this time of year. That price drop came despite an 11% jump in European gas prices that should keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs. Gas prices in Europe soared to their highest since hitting a record in early October on rising demand expectations and renewed concerns that Russia will hold back gas exports to Europe over delays to the startup of Gazprom PAO"s (GAZP.MM) Nord Stream 2 gas pipe from Russia to Germany. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that gas is unlikely to flow through Nord Stream 2 if Russia renews its aggression against Ukraine. read more Front-month U.S. gas futures fell 13.1 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $3.794 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract rose to its highest since Dec. 3. The latest price decline comes after speculators last week cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row to their lowest since June 2020 on expectations the United States will have more than enough gas for the winter heating season. read more APN0DFZLE In recent months, global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes from the United States and elsewhere to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. U.S. futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October but have retreated because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for winter. Overseas prices were trading about 10 times higher than U.S. futures. Analysts have said European inventories were about 20% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 3% below normal in the United States. Looking ahead, many analysts said milder-than-normal weather in December will cause U.S. utilities to leave enough gas in storage to allow stockpiles to reach above-normal levels in a week or two. That would be the first time storage would be at above-normal levels since April. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 96.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, putting it on track to top the monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.3 bcfd this week to 123.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.0 bcfd so far in December now that the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc"s (LNG.A) Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG. That compares to 11.4 bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. With gas prices around $38 per mmBtu in Europe and $35 in Asia , compared with about $4 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. Week ended Dec 10 (Forecast) Week ended Dec 3 (Actual) Year ago Dec 10 Five-year average Dec 10 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -72 -59 -118 -114 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,433 3,505 3,743 3,481 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -1.4% -2.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2020 Five Year Average (2016-2020) Henry Hub 3.97 3.93 2.58 2.13 2.66 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 37.67 34.92 5.82 3.24 5.19 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 35.22 35.19 9.46 4.22 6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 376 346 409 414 411 U.S. GFS CDDs 10 9 2 5 4 U.S. GFS TDDs 386 355 411 419 415 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 96.6 96.8 97.0 91.3 84.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.7 8.5 9.1 9.5 8.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 Total U.S. Supply 105.3 105.3 106.1 101.2 93.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.8 3.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.1 12.3 12.3 11.0 5.0 U.S. Commercial 13.8 12.7 15.9 16.7 15.0 U.S. Residential 21.9 20.6 26.8 28.2 25.4 U.S. Power Plant 28.4 25.1 27.3 30.1 25.8 U.S. Industrial 23.8 23.2 24.7 25.6 24.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.4 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 95.3 88.9 102.3 107.9 98.1 Total U.S. Demand 116.6 110.3 123.7 127.3 110.7 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Dec 17 Week ended Dec 10 Week ended Dec 3 Week ended Nov 26 Week ended Nov 19 Wind 16 13 11 13 14 Solar 2 2 2 2 2 Hydro 7 7 6 6 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1 Natural Gas 33 36 37 34 35 Coal 17 19 19 20 19 Nuclear 22 21 22 22 21 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 3.66 3.67 Transco Z6 New York 2.95 3.21 PG&E Citygate 5.09 5.25 Dominion South 3.04 2.92 Chicago Citygate 3.50 3.43 Algonquin Citygate 3.83 3.67 SoCal Citygate 7.70 7.37 Waha Hub 3.27 3.28 AECO 3.08 3.02 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 39.25 56.50 PJM West 18.50 24.25 Ercot North 33.50 31.50 Mid C 59.50 38.00 Palo Verde 37.75 38.00 SP-15 49.25 55.25 Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Paul Simao and Barbara Lewis Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.