Brazil central bank chief says monetary tightening cycle may be longer

  • 12/16/2021
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BRASILIA, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Brazil central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto said on Thursday that the country"s monetary tightening cycle may have longer to go, reaffirming his disposition to take it further until inflation expectations are back on track. Speaking at a press conference, he stressed it was not possible to know what will be the final level for its benchmark interest rate. The central banked more than quadrupled it to 9.25% from 2% this year and has already signaled another 150 basis point hike in February. Campos Neto also said the central bank will pursue inflation targets until expectations are anchored, looking at the convergence through the relevant horizon of 2022 and 2023. The market foresees a 5.02% rise in inflation in 2022, well above the government"s 3.5% target, according to the central bank"s latest weekly FOCUS survey of around 100 economists. The median forecast for 2023 stands at 3.46%, also surpassing the official 3.25% target. "We do not communicate and we do not know what the terminal rate is. We understand that there is a more persistent (inflationary) movement, which may require a longer cycle," said Campos Neto. Brazil"s central bank lowered its economic growth outlook for 2022 to 1% from the previous forecast of 2.1% earlier on Thursday, citing tougher financial conditions amid its aggressive rate hikes to combat double-digit inflation. According to Monetary Policy Director Fabio Kanczuk, increased fiscal risk is linked to tougher financial conditions seen by the bank, which is not positive for inflation as it increases interest rate futures and depreciates the real against dollar. Brazil"s Congress approved a constitutional amendment backed by the government that will allow President Jair Bolsonaro to increase public next year, when he will seek reelection, with fiscal fears triggering a sharp deterioration in financial conditions.

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