LIVE MARKETS S&P 500: On thin ice?

  • 12/17/2021
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Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com S&P 500: ON THIN ICE? (0900 EST/1400 GMT) The S&P 500 index (.SPX) ended at a record high of 4,712.02 on December 10. It has since backed away from that level by only about 1%. Meanwhile, however, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (DMA) remains severely depressed relative to earlier in the year, when the SPX was much lower: SPX12172021 SPX12172021 This measure"s divergence vs the S&P 500 has been a problem for quite some time. In April, it peaked at 92%. More recently, in mid-November it could only hit 74%. Currently, only around 54% of SPX stocks are trading above this closely followed intermediate-term moving average. That said, recent sub-30% lows in this measure offer the potential that enough stocks within the benchmark index may have become sufficiently washed out, that there may be potential for a rotation away from the few tech titans driving the index, and a broader advance to take hold. read more There were a number of lows from the late-spring to early-fall 2019 in the 27%-31% area. In September and October 2020 there were lows at 25% and 28%. More recently, in September and November this measure stabilized at 24% and 29%. read more A push above the December high, at 63%, may lead to increasing momentum, and see this measure push up above 75%. Conversely, a fall below this week"s low, at 50%, may see downside pressure intensify, which may become increasingly difficult for the SPX to endure, especially if the recent lows give way. Of note, in the severe S&P 500 declines in late-2018 and early-2020, this measure bottomed very close to zero. (Terence Gabriel) ***** FOR FRIDAY"S LIVE MARKETS" POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE: read more Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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