When Edgar becomes the ruler of England at the end of King Lear, he pledges to build a country in which people “speak what we feel, not what we ought to say”. But increasingly there is the possibility of jurors for the 2022 TV Baftas using their votes to do the opposite – which complicates the task of predicting the winners. Sometimes this will arise from the proper and necessary pressure for more diversity. However, this may raise dilemmas for those who objectively feel that a non-progressive veteran has done the best work of the year. And, with Channel 4 and the BBC under threat of reform from the government, there may be a temptation to back them for symbolic reasons. Conversely, some panellists may fear that honouring a great programme about Donald Trump is somehow honouring the notorious 45th president. So the definition of “the best” is even more hedged than in the past. Here are my views on what should/will win. Drama series In My Skin (BBC Three) Manhunt: The Night Stalker (ITV) Unforgotten (ITV) Vigil (BBC One) After four series of twisty-plotted writing, Chris Lang’s cold case series Unforgotten has never won a Bafta. So, with Vigil getting higher marks for atmosphere than logicality, it really should be Unforgotten. But a surprise win for In My Skin in the best writer section at the earlier Bafta Craft awards suggests a challenge from Kayleigh Llewellyn’s teen angst drama here. Mini-series It’s a Sin (Channel 4) Landscapers (Sky Atlantic/HBO) Stephen (ITV) Time (BBC One) In a gold-silver-bronze run-off, Landscapers would miss the podium. It’s a photo-finish between the other three, but It’s A Sin had the most complex subject matter and Russell T Davies – after being an also-ran for the equally excellent Years And Years and A Very English Scandal – deserves first place. International Call My Agent! (Netflix) Lupin (Netflix) Mare of Easttown (Sky Atlantic/HBO) Squid Game (Netflix) Succession (Sky Atlantic/HBO) The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime) This jury may still be arguing now. The impossibility of adjudicating between six of the most impactful dramas of the last decade – let alone last year – will surely drive pressure for more than an International category for 2023. Until then, if those who claim that Netflix has peaked are right, its trio in this line-up represents a high watermark. Mare of Easttown, Succession and Call My Agent have the best writing and acting, but Squid Game was a cultural phenomenon. That said, I’d – just – go for Mare of Easttown. Single drama Death of England: Face to Face (Sky Arts) Help (Channel 4) I am Victoria (Channel 4) Together (BBC Two) Future historians will note that all four contenders touch on the Covid pandemic. The National Theatre could also win its first Bafta for Death of England, Roy Williams’ and Clint Dyer’s film about British racial politics, shot in the locked-down building. But if Channel 4 is hoping for a load of trophies to wave at the government, its campaign should be helped by the likely victory of Help. Leading actor David Thewlis – Landscapers (Sky Atlantic/HBO) Hugh Quarshie – Stephen (ITV) Olly Alexander – It’s a Sin (Channel 4) Samuel Adewunmi – You Don’t Know Me (BBC One) Sean Bean – Time (BBC One) Stephen Graham – Help (Channel 4) A good example of expanded shortlists (there used to be only four names) allowing true diversity. The “next generation” case is strongly made by Olly Alexander’s gay tragic hero in It’s A Sin, against the “great generation” represented by Sean Bean as a repenting prisoner in Time, although Bean is ironically under pressure from his Time co-star, Stephen Graham, as a Covid care home patient in Help. Graham has strong acting heat around him but this probably will – and just about should – be Alexander’s. Leading actress Denise Gough – Too Close (ITV) Emily Watson – Too Close (ITV) Jodie Comer – Help (Channel 4) Kate Winslet – Mare of Easttown (Sky Atlantic/HBO) Lydia West – It’s a Sin (Channel 4) Niamh Algar – Deceit (Channel 4) Comer’s role as a carer in Help confirms that she has the talent to become an all-time great. However, as a guilty detective in Mare of Easttown, Winslet gave one of the most physically, psychologically and vocally precise performances ever seen on TV, and it would be bold to knock back an Oscar, Emmy and Bafta Film winner at her first bid for a Bafta TV trophy. Supporting actor Callum Scott Howells – It’s a Sin (Channel 4) David Carlyle – It’s a Sin (Channel 4) Matthew Macfadyen – Succession (HBO/Sky Atlantic) Nonso Anozie – Sweet Tooth (Netflix) Omari Douglas – It’s a Sin (Channel 4) Stephen Graham – Time (BBC One) The inclusion of three men from It’s A Sin, though huge kudos for the show, probably prevents one of them winning, especially if (naughty as it is) panellists gamble on the best actor judges doing right by Olly Alexander. Stephen Graham has an unusual chance of taking both Actor and Supporting in the same year and would deserve to, but there was widespread dismay that Macfadyen missed out last year for his brilliant performance in Quiz, and Succession is admired as TV at its finest, so he would be a very popular victor. Supporting actress Cathy Tyson – Help (Channel 4) Céline Buckens – Showtrial (BBC One) Emily Mortimer – The Pursuit of Love (BBC One) Jessica Plummer – The Girl Before (BBC One) Leah Harvey – Foundation (Apple TV+) Tahirah Sharif – The Tower (ITV) Very unusually, most of the performances here came in shows with an indifferent critical reception. That may help Tyson, in the acclaimed and multi-nominated Help, and Sharif, who brought subtlety to The Tower, with Tyson probably just ahead. Comedy entertainment programme The Graham Norton Show (BBC One) The Lateish Show With Mo Gilligan (Channel 4) Race Around Britain (YouTube) The Ranganation (BBC Two) The choice between established talent and exciting newcomer is rarely as clear as between one of the all-time greats – Graham Norton, eight wins in this genre, five nominations – and Munya Chawawa, whose super fresh Race Around Britain makes YouTube a serious player. Bafta probably will – and should – choose Chawawa. Current affairs Fearless: The Women Fighting Putin (ITV) Four Hours at the Capitol (BBC Two) The Men Who Sell Football (Al Jazeera English) Trump Takes on the World (BBC Two) The category in which “message voting” will have been most likely. BBC Two’s pair of end-of-Trump shows feel the strongest, with my preference for the great documentarian Norma Percy’s Trump Takes On The World. But Fearless, featuring three opponents of President Putin, feels the likely winner. Daytime The Chase (ITV) Moneybags (Channel 4) Richard Osman’s House of Games (BBC Two) Steph’s Packed Lunch (Channel 4) If “hands off Channel 4, Nadine Dorries” has been a factor in the ballots, this category offers two opportunities out of four, both products of the north-based UK content strategy that is one of the network’s defences against privatisation, although Steph’s Packed Lunch has controversially low ratings. The Chase and House of Games are two schedule thoroughbreds, but Moneybags seems the frontrunner, as a pertinent advert for Channel 4’s purposes. Entertainment performance Alison Hammond: I Can See Your Voice (BBC One) Big Zuu: Big Zuu’s Big Eats (Dave) Graham Norton: The Graham Norton Show (BBC One) Joe Lycett: Joe Lycett’s Got Your Back (Channel 4) Michael McIntyre: Michael McIntyre’s The Wheel (BBC One) Sean Lock: 8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown (Channel 4) This jury has to choose between two much admired living comedians (Graham Norton, Michael McIntyre) and a recently dead one: Sean Lock. He would be a popular winner but, in the past, the Baftas, like the Oscars, have shown reluctance to pick dead nominees. Alison Hammond is more admirable than the format she’s listed for and, with a possible feeling that Norton’s cabinet trophy is full enough, my hunch is that this will be Big Zuu v Joe Lycett, with the consumer reparations remit of the latter’s Got Your Back proving attractive in a cost-of-living crisis. Entertainment programme An Audience With Adele (ITV) Ant and Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway (ITV) Life & Rhymes (Sky Arts) Strictly Come Dancing (BBC One) Not the section for jurors hoping to refresh the winner lists. Takeaway and Strictly are habitual shortlistees and former winners. Socially committed poetry show Life & Rhymes took the trophy last year. Even the least obvious contender was shortlisted for Adele at the BBC in 2016. But the Strictly showreel will surely have included 2021’s first two-man couple and the first deaf contestant/winner, making an unanswerable case for a 19-season series having found new ground. Factual series The Detectives: Fighting Organised Crime (BBC Two) 9/11: One Day in America (National Geographic) Undercover Police: Hunting Paedophiles (Channel 4) Uprising (BBC One) Steve McQueen, the only person to have won an Oscar and a Turner prize, should have added a Bafta TV award for Small Axe last year and surely now must for Uprising, his and James Rogan’s three-parter about the New Cross fire of 1981, an eerie warning (ignored) of future racial injustices including Grenfell. Features Big Zuu’s Big Eats (Dave) Mortimer and Whitehouse: Gone Fishing (BBC Two) Sort Your Life Out (BBC One) The Great British Sewing Bee (BBC One) Likely the most gentle judging meeting with two cosy formats – celebrity angling and amateur needlework – up against a slightly edgier food show and a domestic decluttering format. I suspect Dave can dust its not overloaded awards shelf as Liverpool FC supporter Big Zuu takes one of the few trophies his team can’t win this year. Female performance in a comedy programme Aimee Lou Wood – Sex Education (Netflix) Aisling Bea – This Way Up (Channel 4) Anjana Vasan – We Are Lady Parts (Channel 4) Natasia Demetriou – Stath Lets Flats (Channel 4) Rose Matafeo – Starstruck (BBC Three) Sophie Willan – Alma’s Not Normal (BBC Two) With 50% of the shortlist and an indignant anti-privatisation mood within the industry, Channel 4 feels strongly placed to win and, from its trio, Anjana Vasan feels the most deserving choice for the glorious Muslim punk band sitcom We Are Lady Parts. Male performance in a comedy programme Jamie Demetriou – Stath Lets Flats (Channel 4) Joe Gilgun – Brassic (Sky Max) Ncuti Gatwa – Sex Education (Netflix) Samson Kayo – Bloods (Sky One) Steve Coogan – This Time with Alan Partridge (BBC One) Tim Renkow – Jerk (BBC Three) What’s most interesting here is that five of the six are on minority channels, suggesting good comedy is only happening on the edge. Renkow, for his bold disability comedy, will possibly edge it over Sex Education’s Gatwa. Live event The Brit awards 2021 (ITV) The Earthshot prize 2021 (BBC One) The Royal British Legion Festival of Remembrance (BBC One) Springwatch 2021 (BBC Two) This argument should hinge on editing and camerawork, but probably comes down to topicality/popularity of content. The Earthshot Prize, featuring royalty actual (Prince William) and televisual (David Attenborough) feels like the winner. News coverage Channel 4 News: Black to Front (Channel 4) Good Morning Britain: Shamima Begum (ITV) ITV News at Ten: Storming of the Capitol (ITV) Sky News: Afghanistan: Endgame (Sky News) The Bafta category I’d cancel: how can technical excellence be separated from the emotive impact of the horrors covered? The biggest news is the absence of BBC content, signalling urgent work for new journalism supremo, Deborah Turness, incoming from ITN. To avoid the queasiness of choosing which war, riot or hostage situation matters more, the best choice would be the concept edition in which Channel 4 News used only people of colour. Reality and constructed factual Gogglebox (Channel 4) Married at First Sight (E4) RuPaul’s Drag Race (BBC Three) The Dog House (Channel 4) In my house, Delilah and Fred strongly believe that The Dog House should take the biscuit, and a human jury will also surely have been moved by this lovely attempt to match unwanted pets with owners also needing rescue. But I’ve warned my labrador and jack russell advocates that Rupaul’s Drag Race has a big following in the non-canine world and will be a threat. Scripted comedy Alma’s Not Normal (BBC Two) Motherland (BBC Two) Stath Lets Flats (Channel 4) We Are Lady Parts (Channel 4) Motherland went to new, darker areas in series three but, if there is pressure to go fresher, and given that Sophie Willan remarkably won the writer’s award last year for the pilot of Alma’s Not Normal, We Are Lady Parts would be my winner. Short form programme Hollyoaks Saved My Life (YouTube) Our Land (Together TV) People You May Know (Financial Times) Please Help (BBC Three) Viewers may feel they’ve accidentally switched over to the British Newspaper Awards if – and, I hope, when – the Financial Times takes a Bafta for its drama about data security in the pandemic, written by the super-talented James Graham. Single documentary 9/11: Inside the President’s War Room (Apple TV+) Grenfell: The Untold Story (Channel 4) My Childhood, My Country – 20 Years in Afghanistan (ITV) Nail Bomber: Man Hunt (Netflix) Another concerning no-show for the BBC. Channel 4’s revelatory Grenfell investigation should win. Soap and continuing drama Casualty (BBC One) Coronation Street (ITV) Emmerdale (ITV) Holby City (BBC One) EastEnders will be miffed to have missed out. Holby City hasn’t won since 2008 and this is its last chance to enter a whole year’s output as it finished in March. Expect the soap community to give a big send-off and a rebuke to the BBC bosses who binned it. Specialist factual Black Power: A British Story of Resistance (BBC Two) Freddie Mercury: The Final Act (BBC Two) The Missing Children (ITV) Silenced: The Hidden Story of Disabled Britain (BBC Two) Steve McQueen’s extraordinary awards shelf could contain two TV Baftas if Uprising takes factual series and this one is won by Black Power, although McQueen’s colleague on both, James Rogan, is also up against them in this round for the bio-doc about the Queen frontman. Sport The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Sky Sports) ITV Racing: The Grand National (ITV Sport) Tokyo 2020 Olympics (BBC One) Euro 2020 Semi-final: England v Denmark (ITV Sport) As usual in this category, you might as well draw lots. When I put them in a hat, the Grand Prix came out first, which is as good a bet as any. Virgin Media’s must-see moment (voted for by the public) An Audience With Adele: Adele surprised by the teacher who changed her life (ITV) I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! Ant and Dec dig at Downing Street’s lockdown parties (ITV) It’s A Sin: Colin’s devastating Aids diagnosis (Channel 4) RuPaul’s Drag Race UK: “UK Hun?” – Bimini’s verse (BBC Three) Squid Game: Red Light, Green Light game (Netflix) Strictly Come Dancing: Rose and Giovanni’s silent dance (BBC One) Whereas other juries are encouraged to set emotion aside – with, arguably, increasingly little success – the public vote is strictly visceral. Feelings about the current government may drive clicks for Ant & Dec’s impressive political satire, but the crowd-pleaser (and a powerful use of TV) is the silent dance in Strictly.