Clear victory for rightwing coalition, exit poll indicates OK, the first exit poll is in, and it’s good news for Giorgia Meloni and the far-right Brothers of Italy. According to the Consorzio Opinio Italia poll for Rai, the rightwing coalition has won between 41-45% of the vote and the left alliance 25-29.%. That would give the right a majority in both houses. At this point we should make our regular health warning: Italian exit polls have a very chequered history, and are sometimes wrong. It’s well worth waiting for the projections to come. Poland’s prime minister congratulates Meloni The rightwing Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, has extended his congratulations to Giorgia Meloni, as well as Viktor Orbán (see post here.) The boost that a rightwing government, led by a far-right politician, in one of western Europe’s major countries, a G7 and Nato member, will give to these long-standing rightwing populist governments cannot be understated. More soul-searching on the left. Antonello Guerrera, the prolific UK correspondent for La Repubblica, has posted this Tweet. Attenzione, Keir Starmer. Closing summary We are going to wrap up this blog soon. Thanks to all who have stayed with us for these historic results. Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy, a party with neofascist origins, are predicted by exit polls to have won enough votes to give its rightwing alliance a comfortable majority in both houses of parliament. If these results firm up, and we must be cautious until they do, Meloni will be the frontrunner for prime minister, the first woman in Italy’s history to occupy Palazzo Chigi. With her own party in coalition with the far-right Lega of Matteo Salvini and the rightwing Forza Italia of Silvio Berlusconi, a Meloni-led government is likely to be the most rightwing Italy has had since the second world war. Meloni’s likely victory has already brought congratulations from Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s authoritarian fourth-term prime minister. He welcomed the arrival of “friends who share a common vision.” The bloc led by the centre-left Partito Democratico is predicted by the exit poll to win 25.5%-29.5% of the vote. The Five Star Movement, which triggered the political crisis by withdrawing support from Mario Draghi’s government, is forecast to have won 13.5- 17.5%. Turnout was 63.8%, the interior ministry said, about nine points down on the last election in 2018. Hungary"s Orbán congratulates far-right Meloni Giorgia Meloni has been congratulated by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Balázs Orbán, Viktor Orbán’s political director and member of the Hungarian parliament, wrote on Twitter: In these difficult times, we need more than ever friends who share a common vision and approach to Europe’s challenges. The first projection – based on a proportion of actual votes cast- for the upper house is in. They give Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy 24.6% of the vote, with the centre-left Partito Democratico the second party with 19.4%. The Five Star Movement are in third place, with 16.5%. But, crucially for Meloni, her alliance partners, the far-right Lega and rightwing Forza Italia, pick up 8.5% and 8% respectively. Which gives their alliance the majority they need. This is looking like a very good night for Meloni. If you’re coming to the blog fresh, and are wanting to know more about Giorgia Meloni, the woman likely to become Italy’s first far-right prime minister since the second world war, take a look at this piece by the Guardian’s Angela Giuffrida. [MSI was the Italian Social Movement, formed in 1946 by supporters of Mussolini.] She wrote in her biography, Io Sono Giorgia – I am Giorgia – that she was instinctively drawn to MSI’s youth movement, where she said she found solidarity in a close-knit, if marginalised, community of militants often depicted as evil or violent, who dedicated all their time to politics as opposed to frequenting discos or shopping like their peers. As we reported earlier, Meloni rejects the idea that her politics are fascist, arguing that the Italian right consigned fascism to history decades ago. She has said there are no “nostalgic fascists, racists or antisemites in the Brothers of Italy DNA” and that she has always got rid of “ambiguous people”. However, not everyone is convinced. Brothers of Italy has retained MSI’s tricoloured flame in its official logo and its headquarters is at the same address, on Via della Scrofa in central Rome, where MSI set up office in 1946. In the summer, Meloni, whose party’s motto is “God, family and country”, travelled to Marbella where she expressed her hardline views on immigration and homosexuality during an aggressive speech at a rally held by her party’s Spanish far-right counterpart Vox. (You can watch that video here, too.) Salvini: rightwing alliance has a "clear advantage" Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League, has posted his reaction on Twitter, declaring that his alliance has a “clear advantage” in both the upper and lower houses. It’s going to be a long night, but I want to say THANK YOU There will be much soul-searching for the Italian left in coming weeks if these exit poll results are confirmed. In fact, it’s already begun… Angela Giuffrida, the Guardian’s Italy correspondent, has filed a story based on those exit poll results, remarking: If exit polls are correct, the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, is expected to hand Meloni a mandate to form a government that, if everything goes smoothly, could be in place by the end of October. (Nothing happens particularly quickly in Italian politics.) It is likely to be a government with some good friends among Europe’s rightwing populists, she adds. The coalition’s expected victory, however, raises questions about the country’s alliances in Europe as the continent enters a winter likely to be dominated by high energy prices and its response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Meloni has sought to send reassuring messages, but the prospect of her as prime minister is unlikely to be welcomed in Paris or Berlin. Germany’s governing Social Democratic party warned last week that her win would be bad for European cooperation. Lars Klingbeil, the chairman of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, said Meloni had aligned herself with “anti-democratic” figures such as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Earlier this month, Meloni’s MEPs voted against a resolution that condemned Hungary as “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”. Meloni is also allied to Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice party, the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats and Spain’s far-right Vox party. Exit poll results in full To breakdown those exit poll results in full… In total the rightwing alliance is set to win between 41 and 45% of the vote. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are on course to win 22-26%, Salvini’s Lega between 8.5% and 12.5%, and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia a very modest 6-8%. (That is why Meloni is the clear frontrunner for prime minister.) The centre-left, if this exit poll proves right, is on course to garner between 17 and 21% of the vote – not so far behind the Brothers of Italy. But their alliance partners are smaller. The combined forces of Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda’s parties have managed between 6.5% and 8.5%, according to the exit poll. And the Five Star Movement, which pulled the plug on Mario Draghi’s government? Between 13.5% and 17.5%.