Exit poll shows Progressive Slovakia in lead An exit poll conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza is now public: Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia: 23.5% Robert Fico’s Smer: 21.9% Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas: 12.2% Tough coalition-building to come The first exit poll points to a hung parliament, said Milan Nič, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and expert on Slovakia. The poll also indicates a first mandate for Progressive Slovakia to lead coalition talks, Nič told the Guardian. One crucial thing to watch, he added, is whether the nationalist Slovak National party (SNS) will pass the 5% threshold to enter parliament. “Their 9-10 mandates would change the parliamentary arithmetic in favour of a Fico-led coalition,” he said. Big night for progressives If the first exit poll is accurate, Progressive Slovakia and its leader – 39-year old European parliament member Michal Šimečka – are having a great night. Exit poll shows Progressive Slovakia in lead An exit poll conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza is now public: Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia: 23.5% Robert Fico’s Smer: 21.9% Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas: 12.2% ‘Positive yet humble spirits’ at Progressive Slovakia election night event In a text message from Progressive Slovakia’s election event this evening, MEP Martin Hojsík described the mood as “positive yet humble spirits and friendly atmosphere”. “The campaign was dirty. We had to face lots of misinformation and attacks but are happy that we managed to stay focused on presenting our message,” he told the Guardian. “People here have given their best and now it’s in the hands of the voters,” Hojsík added. And now the question we’re all asking… TV Markíza’s exit poll shows that one party is leading at 23.5%. But is it the populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer, or the pro-EU Progressive Slovakia party? We will find out at 10.45pm CET. First exit poll shows tight results A first exit poll, conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza, shows that one Slovak political party is expected to get 23.5% of the vote, while another is expected to receive 21.9%. The parties are not named due to a moratorium on publishing exit polls, which will be lifted at 10.45pm CET. Slovakia’s election day in pictures Will Slovakia turn pro-Kremlin? “There is a real concern that after the vote Slovakia could become some sort of Trojan horse of Russia in the EU and NATO,” said Andrej Matisak, a journalist at Slovak daily Pravda. Robert Fico’s campaign rhetoric does suggest that if he is able to form a government, he would move towards the pro-Russia camp, Matisak said, noting that the Smer (Direction) leader “says that if he governs, Slovakia will not provide any military aid to Ukraine. And if he criticises Russia it is usually a very mild and general critique.” But, the Slovak journalist said: “I believe that it is entirely possible that after the elections Fico might act quite pragmatically regarding the EU and NATO.” The populist politician “wants to dominate the domestic scene and in order to achieve it, at least in the short term, he probably won’t do anything really drastic on the international scene as he wants to avoid unnecessary attention from the EU institutions.” Nevertheless, he added, “the problem is that Fico already crossed a few red lines and his potential far-right coalition partners are probably even more pro-Russian than him.” How will the progressives do? Progressive Slovakia has surged in the polls over the past few months. “If the 2020 election is anything to go by, the momentum of the final days is going to propel Progressive Slovakia to first place,” tweeted Michal Ovádek, a lecturer at University College London. Zelenskiy sends a message Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, sent a message to Slovaks on election day. Without mentioning the race, he thanked Slovakia for “standing with Ukraine”. Robert Fico’s opposition to military aid for Ukraine and criticism of sanctions raised fears that a new Slovak government could join Hungary as a more pro-Russian voice within the EU and Nato. Hungarian minister weighs in Péter Szijjártó, Hungary’s foreign minister and a close ally of Viktor Orbán, urged Hungarian speakers in Slovakia to vote for the Szövetség-Aliancia (Alliance) party representing ethnic Hungarians. “Now is the time! Hungarians in the parliament!” he wrote in a social media post today endorsing Krisztián Forró, the party’s lead candidate. Szijjártó also spent time in Slovakia earlier in the week. ‘It will be close’: Candidates make last push In what is expected to be a knife-edge vote, candidates have been urging Slovaks to come out to vote – and bring their friends. “If you haven’t voted today, please join - by train, car, on foot, as needed,” Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka wrote on Facebook earlier this evening. “It will be close and every single vote can decide,” he added. “Friends, come cast your vote,” Hlas party leader and former prime minister Peter Pellegrini said on social media. “Others have already used their opportunity, but you can decide,” he said. Catch up on the Guardian’s Slovakia coverage Polls open in knife-edge vote with Ukraine high on agenda by Jon Henley ‘Roma only’: the school caught up in a Slovakian national scandal by Daniel Boffey ‘A huge storm’: polarised Slovakia on a knife edge ahead of elections by Jason Burke Slovakian elections Q&A: country votes after four PMs in five years by Jon Henley Exit polls expected at 10:45pm CET While first exit polls were expected shortly after 10pm CET, a moratorium on publishing results has been extended until 10:45pm local time due to the death of a voter in a polling station in Považská Bystrica. Nevertheless, television station Markíza is still expected to publish numbers at 10pm – but without indicating party names. A record 58,779 people voted by mail from abroad in Slovakia’s election, according to the country’s interior ministry. 23,486 voted from the Czech Republic, 6,238 from the UK and 5,546 from Germany. Welcome to the Slovakia election blog Welcome to a special edition of our Europe live blog. This evening we will be looking at Slovakia’s snap election, which has attracted attention far beyond the country’s borders. All eyes are on 59-year-old Robert Fico, a populist former three-time prime minister who has pledged to stop military aid to Ukraine, criticised sanctions targeting Russia and campaigned against LGBTQ+ rights. Fico’s Smer party is neck-to-neck in the polls with Progressive Slovakia, a liberal party led by 39-year-old European parliament vice-president Michal Šimečka. But the ultimate outcome of the election may be decided by a host of smaller parties that are expected to also enter parliament. Hlas, led by former prime minister and ex-Smer member Peter Pellegrini, has been coming in third in opinion polls and could become a kingmaker. Are you following Slovakia’s election? We want to hear from you. Send comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.