Legendary British wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill, a keen historian, famously said that “the longer you can look back, the further you can look forward.” Churchill’s maxim has high relevance today, given the key anniversaries in late 2022 and early 2023 of major historical events that still shape the modern world. A good example was the Jan. 1 75th anniversary of the implementation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, known as GATT. Seen from today’s vantage point, the GATT process became a key driver of global prosperity. Since the end of the Second World War, global trade has grown far faster than overall economic growth and, in 1995, GATT ultimately gave way to the World Trade Organization, which is now creaking under pressure, with protectionism once again creeping forward in multiple forms, including barriers and regulations limiting trade. So, this month’s GATT anniversary reminds us of the far-sightedness of US policy at the time. After the trauma of the Second World War, the Roosevelt and Truman administrations sought to build a lasting, liberal world order, acting on the belief that the conflict was in part a consequence of the protectionist trade policies that many countries pursued in the interwar years. Important as the GATT anniversary is, however, another historical event could have even more relevance for a deeper understanding of 2023, given the ongoing Ukraine war. For, 100 years after the creation of the Soviet Union on Dec. 29, 1922, the legacy of the communist state continues to this day, including in Russian policy toward Ukraine. While Putin may appear nostalgic about the USSR, his primary concern is much more about the loss of respect for Russia on the world stage Andrew Hammond Vladimir Putin in 2005 called the fall of the USSR the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” As well as losing international prestige, the collapse led — in the Russian president’s own words — to “tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen finding themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” Last year, he added: “It is enough to look at what is happening now between Russia and Ukraine, and at what is happening on the borders of some other (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries. All this, of course, is the result of the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Putin’s reading of history, however disputed, helps explain the huge risks he has taken in Ukraine since last February. Prior to the invasion, Russian officials repeatedly warned that they could intervene to help Russian-speaking citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rose. While Putin may appear nostalgic about the USSR, his primary concern is much more about the loss of respect for Russia on the world stage. This sentiment has been a key feature of his hold on power: Namely, forging a sense of post-Cold War patriotism, including highlighting key historical moments, such as 2020’s 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. It also helps explain why his core mission has been to restore Russia’s geopolitical prominence through international operations like the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (which many date as the true beginning of the Ukraine war) and his intervention in Syria in 2015. He also hosted, in 2019, the first ever Russia-Africa summit, seeking to restore Moscow’s influence on the continent that had faded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. While these foreign policy initiatives have — at least prior to the invasion of Ukraine — generally played well with Russia domestic audiences, they have resulted in the worst relations with the West since the Cold War. This is unlikely to change while he remains in power. This will continue to have key implications for international politics, especially given Putin’s closeness to Xi Jinping, who he held a video summit with on Dec. 30 with a view to the Chinese president traveling to Moscow for a state visit in 2023. Beijing and Moscow are working more closely together not just to further bilateral interests, but also to hedge against the prospects of a continuing chill in US ties. Perhaps the most cited area of these warmer ties is on the security front. In recent weeks, for instance, Russia and China have conducted joint naval drills, which Russia’s army chief described as a response to the “aggressive” US military posturing in the Asia-Pacific region. However, Moscow and Beijing also enjoy an extensive and growing economic dialogue, especially on the energy front. Russia became China’s top crude oil supplier only last month, while it has also become Beijing’s second-largest supplier of pipeline gas and fourth-largest supplier of liquefied natural gas. This underlines why the implications of Putin’s remaining period in office are so vast. With Moscow’s ties with the West so very frosty, his presidency seems likely to see him opt for an ever closer relationship with Beijing, especially while Xi also remains in power, with potentially profound implications for international relations in 2023 and beyond. Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.