Rishi Sunak has been warned that he faces a pre-election “disaster” over his government’s high-profile childcare pledge, amid concerns that many parents will be unable to access the scheme just weeks before they go to the polls. The prime minister has already admitted that “practical issues” have hampered the delivery of the free childcare offer, which the government has described as the largest ever expansion of provision. Parents and nurseries have expressed concern about a chaotic situation approaching in April, when all two-year-olds will be eligible for 15 hours of funded childcare, for 38 weeks per year. However, there are also warnings that a “significantly bigger problem” looms in September, when nine-month-olds will be eligible for the scheme. With significant staffing shortages and limited numbers of premises already an issue, providers are warning that the more intensive care needed for younger children will mean parents will find it extremely difficult to find a childcare place. There are also warnings that without further guarantees over funding, some nurseries could cease to be viable. Many make their businesses work by charging higher fees for younger children, which make up the shortfall created by the public funding they receive for older children. Some childminders have already declared that they will not take part in the expanded scheme. The change is likely to happen just weeks before the general election, which is likely to be held in October or November. Huge efforts are now being made to attract enough childcare staff in time, including a forthcoming recruitment campaign and new fast-track apprenticeships. However, providers are warning that after years of neglect, the government’s pre-election expansion is being rushed through too fast. “There’s a risk that the September rollout could cause a significantly bigger problem for providers and families alike,” said Neil Leitch, chief executive of the Early Years Alliance. He said that without the ability to charge higher rates for younger children to make their business work, nurseries were “relying on the government to do the right thing, and, put simply, the precedent is it never does”. “On top of this, some providers simply don’t have the resources – in terms of financial and physical space – to be able to adapt their premises to accommodate more younger children,” he said. “There are some settings that cannot accommodate 18-month-old children. “Increasingly, early years care and education is moving up the agenda. And given that it is one of the most expensive costs that many parents have, it is inevitable that it’s going to be incredibly topical. If the government had strategically thought about this 10 years ago, then there wouldn’t be this massive compression of offers into a very short period of time to try to resolve it, which – I think – spells disaster.” Amid mounting political pressure, chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced the £4bn childcare expansion plan after the UK emerged as one of the most expensive countries for places. By the time he unveiled the plan, the average cost of a full-time nursery place for a child under two had risen to almost £15,000, according to the charity Coram. There has been a significant increase in childcare funding, with the department saying that from April, it will average £5.88 an hour for three- and four-year-olds, £8.28 for two-year-olds, or £11.22 for children under two. However, providers said they were still unclear on the funding they would receive. Anna Bainbridge, an experienced childminder in Hersham, Surrey, said that her concerns about her hourly rate, inability to charge a “top up” to parents and the bureaucracy of the new system meant she was not planning to take part. “At the moment, we don’t know what the rate will be for two-year-olds, never mind nine-month-olds later this year,” she said. “It’s not something that I’m looking to offer. What’s going to happen is that all these parents that think they’ll get it will find some childminders don’t have to take it. They will find they will lose childminders. I’ve already said if I’m forced into doing this funding, I will walk away – and I’ve been in childcare for over 35 years.” Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, said the expansion had been ordered “without a plan” to deliver it. “Labour warned the Conservatives that chasing headlines instead of putting together a long-term plan for reform of childcare could end up crashing the childcare market just as they did the economy, resulting in parents missing out on places,” she said. A Department for Education spokesperson said: “We are rolling out the single largest expansion in childcare in England’s history, and are confident in the strength of the market to deliver the offers, backed by a £204m cash boost last September and more than £400m in April to help create more places and support staff salaries. “We will shortly be launching a new multimillion-pound national recruitment campaign, and introducing a new accelerated apprenticeship route into the sector to help recruit new staff. Even before these interventions, early years places and staff had increased in 2023 compared with five years ago, while the number of children aged 0-five has dropped year on year between 2018 and 2022.”